What Wings were outmatched, and how well did they do? Added bonus: Impromptu rant at the end.

Instead of looking at the bottom players in CompDiff in the NHL—because honestly who gives a shit about Tomas Kaberle?—I decided to look at the Wings roster in terms of CompDiff—who was outmatched and succeeded/failed, and who outmatched their opponents and succeeded/failed.  Remember, CompDiff is the same as ToM from my previous post; I decided to change the name because (a) ToM sounds lame as hell and (b) CompDiff is a more accurate name anyways.  To refresh everyone’s memory:

CompDiff = CorsiRelQoC – CorsiRelQoT

In other words, the higher and more positive the number, the more the player was outmatched.  Negative numbers indicate the player outmatched his opponents (by virtue of the formula), and the bigger the negative number the more the player outmatched his opponents.

From most outmatched to least, here is the Wings roster:

A few things of note—

• I rag a lot on Kronwall and Stuart, but they were seriously outmatched.  That doesn’t excuse their poor play by any means, but it certainly puts it into context.  I think it is also a bit of a “vicious cycle” thing, where Kronwall brought down Stuart’s QoT and Stuart did the same to Kronwall.
• Helm was considerably outmatched yet posted a postivie RelCorsi.  As if we needed more reason to love Helm.
• Mursak did pretty bad this year, but he—too—was outmatched.  I don’t expect much out of him in the future, to be honest, but we shall see.
• Miller, Filppula, and Emmerton outmatched their opponents, if only a little bit, and fell flat on their faces.  Brendan Smith barely did as well and succeeded admirably.
• Nyquist outmatched his opponents quite a bit, which is not all too surprising since he played a few games paired up on the first/second line.  It says a lot of what Babcock and Holland think of the kid.
• Quincey and Ericsson outmatched their opponents and sucked.  Quincey’s RelCorsi is artificially inflated from his time spent in Colorado.  I don’t have his numbers in Detroit offhand, but I can assure you his RelCorsi plummeted in the short time he was here.
• Bertuzzi was barely a plus possession player despite outmatching his opponents more than any other player on the Wings roster.

Which brings me to a critical question—Why was Bertuzzi given a two year extension?

I know, I know—hindsight is 20/20.  Holland conserved the cap space to go after Suter and Parise and he couldn’t have predicted they were a package deal that had their hearts set on a homecoming.  They swung and missed on both, and as a result it’s becoming more and more evident how this is negatively impacting the Wings.  Originally, I had said don’t bother with both because they would adversely impact the cap in years to come, but over time I came to think Suter may be worth it.  He is leagues ahead of any UFA defensemen to hit the open market in recent years, and for a time it seemed as if they were going to land him.

Yet now that it’s all said and done, I realize I was right at the outset in more ways than I imagined.  What I didn’t anticipate is how pursuing and failing to land them would hurt the Wings.   I’d have been happier with Hudler and no Bertuzzi.  I’d have been happier with P.A. Parenteau, who got the same deal as Hudler with Colorado.   I’d be happier if they pursued Sheldon Souray.

Though the Wings have been cited on multiple occasions as a team that exploits advanced statistics, I have a hard time believing this in light of their recent signings.  It made little sense to extend Bertuzzi for two years instead of saving the money for Hudler, who is younger and a better player.  Yes, a better player—Jiri Hudler.  It made little sense to extend Bertuzzi when they could have pursued an alternative better than either of them in P.A. Parenteau.  And lest we talk about the giant holes on the blueline.

This has been a train wreck of an offseason thus far, and Holland has to take some of the blame.  Had he signed Suter, I might be singing a different tune—I know that.  But he has made blunders in other respects that had little bearing on the pursuit of Suter and Parise.

And at this point, there isn’t much he can do.  Will signing Shane Doan or Alexander Semin make up for his recent guffaws?  I don’t know.  We’ll see, but I’m not going to be surprised the next time Holland sits on his hands and doesn’t do a thing.

Who is best at drawing a lot of penalties while taking few?

Playing around the 2011-2012 player data some more, I decided to see what players were good at drawing penalties while taking very few, mainly because of what an undervalued asset it can be.  Teams in the Western Conference seem to take advantage of it more than those in the East.  And it is one of the “small ball” things Detroit does very well, having realized a simple truth—even the best penalty-killers are more likely to be scored on shorthanded, and even the team with the worst powerplay is more likely to score with a man-advantage.  Accordingly, Detroit is consistently one of the least penalized teams in the league, and guys like Darren Helm and Pavel Datsyuk amplify this with their ability to draw a lot of penalties.

Figuring out what players were best at drawing penalties while taking few was simple.  All I had to do was subtract penalties drawn per 60 minutes by penalties taken per 60 minutes and—voila!—I had a differential that told me exactly this.  Let’s keep it simple and call this stat PDiff.

Below are the top twenty players in PDiff:

Unsurprisingly, all are forwards, the majority of which being top-six forwards.  Forwards—particularly those with a lot of skill—are most likely to be clutched, grabbed, hooked, slashed, elbowed, tripped, teabagged etc. by the opposing team in order to take them off the puck and prevent them from scoring.  There are a few exceptions, number one of which being our very own Darren Helm, tying last year’s Calder Trophy winner Jeff Skinner.  For the most part, however, top-six forwards dominated the list.

All in all, though, forwards have a higher PDiff on average.  More specifically, forwards (playing at least 41 games, or half the season) had an average PDiff of 0.06 whereas defensemen had an average of -0.2.  (Forwards had a higher standard deviation, meaning their numbers were more spread out from the mean rather than being concentrated near it.)  However, outliers can skew data, so median is generally better than mean.  In this case, the median forward had a PDiff of 0.1 whereas the median defenseman had a PDiff of -0.3.  Given a disparity as large as that, it is not surprising the top twenty players in PDiff all happen to be forwards.

And unlike the forwards, the top twenty defensemen in this category represent a smattering of talent without a single unifying characteristic.

You have top-pairing guys like Brian Campbell and Oliver Eckman-Larsson, but then you have guys like Alexei Emelin and Andrew Macdonald on the list as well.  Clearly, this is not an accurate measurement of overall performance—particularly for defensemen—though it could certainly prove to be an undervalued asset if a player can consistently draw more penalties than he takes.

Anyways, if looking at the top defenders isn’t telling, perhaps looking at the bottom defenders in PDiff is.

And at the top of the list is Kyle Quincey with Easy-E edging into 7^th, but again it is a smattering of talent with no discernible pattern—talented guys like Souray, Byfuglien, and Hedman made the list while hot garbage like Weber (Yanick!) and Kubina were mixed in there as well.

Finally, since this is supposedly a Wings blog, let’s take a look at how the Wings faired in this category.

I included Hudler as well as Samuelsson to compare the two as well as Jordin Tootoo.  Obviously, their stats are with the respective teams they played for last year.

Now, it’s understandable Holland picked up Quincey to stock up on defensemen given he likely knew Lidstrom was retiring and Stuart would be leaving, but he certainly does not have the same discipline other Red Wings do.  And though Tootoo has the smallest differential of all the bottom-six, it’s at least promising to see he draws more than he takes.  (It should be noted, however, that his differential has been declining.)  Also of note—Samuelsson is an upgrade over Hudler in this regard.

And then there’s Bertuzzi, who is a top-six forward that is not really a top-six forward—his differential is well below the median for forwards.  The guy has always been a hot head and an idiot (*coughSTEVEMOOREcough*), so I’m not in the least bit surprised.  I don’t give a shit about his spin-o-rama shootout goals—that he takes way more penalties than he draws just further highlights how ineffective Bert is in this lineup.

I’ve been having a lot of fun with this stat sheet, so expect more of this kind of stuff in the future.  The next post will be a short one, where I’ll go over the bottom ranking players in ToM.  (I’m renaming this CompDiff, because ToM is lame and not entirely reflective of how tough a player’s minutes are anyways.)

It just so happens one of our Red Wings is 22^nd on this list!  Who ever could it be?

A Look At “Suicidal Minutes” in the NHL

One shortcoming of player usage charts is they don’t account for quality of teammates.  Take Jason Garisson for example.  Last year with a poor CorsiRelQoT, or the average relative corsi numbers of the teammates he played with, he posted a negative RelCorsi.  With far better teammates this past season, Garrison’s RelCorsi skyrocketed, as did his point totals.  Though Garrison had a fantastic season by any metric, it should be noted that he got his fair share of help—more than he’s ever had in his short career.

This got me to thinking, however, if there were any players that excelled under what I’ll dub “Suicidal Minutes”.  At first I looked at those who had a negative CorsiRelQoT, positive CorsiRelQoC, and below average zone starts* while managing a positive RelCorsi.  After compiling the names, I realized this didn’t capture the whole picture.  David Clarkson, for example, had below average zone starts, but faced competition that was fairly close in quality to the teammates he was paired up with.  Benoit Pouliot—who had above average offensive zone starts—faced a far greater disparity.  Similarly, Jordan Staal and Brent Seabrook both had a positive CorsiRelQoT, yet faced far tougher competition than the teammates they played with.

In order to compensate for this, I calculated the difference between each player’s CorsiRelQoC and CorsiRelQoT.  So the higher and more positive the differential, the tougher the minutes a player faced.  This made me realize I wasn’t looking for players with negative QoT and positive QoC, but players who excelled despite a high difference between the two.  Let’s call this measure “Toughness of Minutes”, or ToM.

Ranked from highest to lowest ToM, here are the top twenty forwards and defensemen who posted a positive RelCorsi and played a minimum of 60 games.  Also, I did not factor in whether or not a player had favorable or unfavorable zone starts.

It’s not exactly your “who’s who” of forwards and defensemen, but there are quite a few big names on these lists and not really a bad one of note.  For the defensemen, a few observations:

• Mark Giordano and Victor Hedman had a considerably higher ToM than Doughty and Seabrook while posting comparable RelCorsi numbers.  Both have been viewed as solid defensemen, but maybe they’re a lot better than we think they are.
• Also—Victor Hedman started in the offensive zone a mere 37.3% of the time.  Guy is good, real good.
• Justin Braun?  Andrej Sekera?  Well, the numbers don’t lie.  Both ranked high in ToM and posted high RelCorsi numbers.  Braun is the only one on the list to face weak competition, however.
• Fedor Tyutin faced very tough competition and registered an 8.3 RelCorsi.  Not everything about the Blue Jackets is bad.
• Maybe Karlsson does deserve that Norris trophy after all?

And a few observations regarding the forwards:

• Benoit Pouliot may have been a steal at $1.8 million for the lightning.  Though he did have the highest percentage of offensive zone starts among Bruins, there was a mammoth disparity between the competition he faced and the teammates he played with.
• Erik Condra?  Yup!  Just because they can’t score goals doesn’t mean they don’t have a purpose.
• Henrik Zetterberg had a high 6.1 RelCorsi while having the 3^rd highest differential on the list.  He also had below a below average OffZone% among Red Wings.  While we Wings fans often exalt Datsyuk for his extraordinary two-way play, Zetterberg sometimes gets overlooked.
• Jiri Hudler.  Yup.  A barely positive RelCorsi, but he had a large ToM.  This is one of the reasons I was indifferent to whether or not the Wings resigned him.  And perhaps my original assessment of him as a poor defender was unwarranted.
• I think Filppula, Stuart, and Kronwall were largely responsible for bringing down the QoT of Zetterberg and Hudler.
• Dubinsky, Vermette, and Staal not only had high differentials but were also saddled with unfavorable zone starts and still dominated.
• Dubinsky in particular—higher ToM than both of them, fewer offensive zone starts, and he still posted a RelCorsi higher than Staal and vermette’s.
• Brian Boyle had an extraordinarily low OffZone% at 28.8% and managed a RelCorsi higher than Jiri Hudler, who started in the offensive zone 55.8% of the time.

This, of course, isn’t meant to see who the best defensemen and forwards are; very skilled forwards are oftentimes fed soft minutes because they’re most likely to score, and skilled players in general are going to be paired with skilled teammates.

If anything, it’s meant to give an added perspective player usage charts don’t give; while a player like Erik Condra faced negative QoC, ToM shows how great the disparity was between who he played with and who he played against.  In this instance, it shows how much better he performed to other fourth-liners who posted similar RelCorsi numbers.

Much thanks go to Rob Vollman and Hockey Abstract for assembling the data I used.

*Since RelCorsi is relative to the team a player is on, it’s only fair that zone starts are taken in the same context.  For example, while Henrik Zetterberg got over 50% offensive zone starts, he also had some of the fewest among all Red Wings.  In other words, most all Red Wings were fed more opportunities to put the puck on net—boosting their on-ice corsi—than Zetterberg, which would negatively affect Zetterberg’s RelCorsi.

Okay, so…now what?

Yesterday, Matt Carle inked a 6 year, $33 million contract with the Stevie Y and the Tampa Bay Lightning.  And with that went Plan B/C, depending on where you slotted Jason Garrison on your free agent defense chart, flew out the window.

(Personally, I much prefer the upside to Garrison–who is being paid nearly a million less per season–than I do with Carle.  With Garisson, you get a slightly younger defenseman who performed at an elite level Carle never has.  With Carle, you get a guy with more of a proven track record, but never performing at a level I’d consider ‘elite’.)

So what the hell do the Wings do now?

Unfortunately for them, gambling on Suter and Parise cost them more than just those two players; it also cost them better alternatives since they needed to conserve cap space in order to sign both of them.  First and foremost would be Sheldon Souray, who despite his age and history of injuries, is looking pretty enticing at 2 years, $4.5 million per.  And though signing with Vancouver was a bit of a homecoming for him, much like Suter and Parise to Minnesota, they didn’t even get a chance to bid on Jason Garrison.

Of course, hindsight is 20/20.  To replace a talent like Nick’s, they needed to go after Suter.  As part 1B of the best blueline tandem in the NHL, that’s not a bad consolation prize.  I don’t fault them for trying, nor do I think they could have foresaw the circumstances that arose–that Suter and Parise were a package deal looking to return home.  At that point, it didn’t matter what the Wings offered; they were set on Minnesota.

The Wings next best bet is, sadly, Carlo Colaiacovo or Michal Rozsival.  Right now they have six defensemen, and one of those defensemen–Jakub Kindl–barely qualifies as one, so I imagine they will sign a veteran defenseman on the cheap when all is said and done.

Not to be all fucking morose or anything, but there is little to look forward to this coming season aside from hoping Smith and Nyquist pan out the way they’re supposed to.

We shall see…

The Wings may be better off without Suter and Parise. Also, Surprise! Jay Feaster is stupid.

I’ll keep it brief.

Awhile back I warned what signing both of these players to megadeals could mean for the future health of the Wings franchise.  I purposely underestimated how much both players would sign for in order to prove a point, and it turns out I was right in doing so; Suter and Parise signed mirror 13-year, $98 million (~$7.5 annually) deals with full no-trade clauses.  I guessed 10 years, $6.5 million annually.

Going back to my example in the article, that means were the Wings to land Suter and Parise, they’d have ~$30 million committed to 5 players through the 2017-2018 season, lest we forget about a certain Pavel Datsyuk who will need a contract extension after the 2013-2014 season.  Now, there are two scenarios that could devlop in this instance: (A) The Wings sign Datsyuk to a short megadeal worth $7.5 million annually or (B) they lose him to free agency because they have too  much money committed to other players already.

In Scenario A, the Wings would then have $37.5 million committed to the roster, which is approximately 53% of the cap.  In Scenario B, the Wings would have $30 million committed against the cap in megadeals, which is about 42%.

While the annual increase in the cap ceiling have made megadeals a lot more palatable than when they were first signed (e.g. Zetterberg, Franzen), I am not betting on league revenue to explode the way it has in recent years, nor do I expect the cap ceiling to continue to rise. Considering the dire straits the league was in when the cap was first implemented, it is not surprising how much the ceiling has risen in recent years.  Yet TV revenue is locked in for the next 9 years given the contract the league signed with NBC, and I just can’t see ticket and merchandise sales shooting the cap up much farther, nevermind that a new CBA needs to be hammered out to prevent a lockout next season.  Moreover, overinvestment during boom years can lead to busts later on down the road.

(And let’s not also forget that salaries have increased accordingly with the cap, so it’s not like the extra cap space is providing teams with that a whole lot more breathing room.)

I certainly don’t give a shit how much revenue the league pulls in.  To be fully honest, I don’t really give a shit how much a player makes or doesn’t make.  But since it plays into how my team is able to retain and acquire players, these factors matters insofar as how the salary cap is affected.

So all in all, I’m happy the Wings didn’t sign these deals.  I became convinced Suter alone would be worth a megadeal, sure; in Nashville he has been an integral part to [i]the[/i] best blueline tandem in the league with Shea Weber.  In my mind, though, I wanted just one–not both.

If anything, this is a great opportunity to laugh at Jay Feaster.  The Flames signed Hudler and Wideman; their division rivals signed Parise and Suter.  el-oh-el

Bobby Ryan wants out, so is he worth trading for?

After an abysmal start to the 2011-2012 season, the Ducks fired head coach Randy Carlyle, replacing him with recently dismissed Washington Capitals bench boss Bruce Boudreau, hoping he could stop the ship from sinking and push the Ducks into the playoffs.  Soon thereafter, when it became evident they would not be able to crawl out of the hole they dug themselves into during the first half of the season, the Ducks became a source for trade speculation, in good part due to GM Bob Murray stating everyone was “in play” aside from Saku Koivu and Teemu Selanne.

Bobby Ryan quickly became the biggest target when it seemed unlikely the Ducks would trade Corey Perry or Ryan Getzlaf.  (This would later prove right as Murray said last Thursday that extending Perry and Getzlaf was “imperative” for the franchise.)  Trade speculation heated up and for a time it seemed likely Bobby Ryan would be moved, but the trade deadline passed and nothing happened.

Ryan, however, hasn’t cared much for the frequent trade rumors, speaking candidly with the Courier-Post in New Jersey for a charity golf tournament a couple weeks ago:

“I heard Anaheim was a little overwhelmed with offers and they only took four seriously, but none of the teams were mentioned to me other than Philly,” Ryan said. “Everybody wants to play in your hometown, but it would be tough because a lot of expectations come when you’re put into a situation like that. For me, if I’m moved, Philadelphia would be a very ideal and comfortable place for me.”

[…]

“I take things personally,” Ryan said. “Anaheim to me has been a team over the past year that really has shown me nothing to prove that they want me here, unfortunately. Obviously, it’s not the ideal situation. When you get drafted, you want to win championships with that team and every time they look to add a piece to the puzzle, I’m the piece going the other way.

“I gotta be honest with you. At this point, I don’t care. Move me … because it’s just tough going to the rink every day knowing that if something goes wrong, you’re going to be the guy moved.”

With comments like those, you almost have to move the guy, right?  So for Wings fans, this is good and bad news.  The good news is Bobby Ryan is on the trading block again in a big way; the bad news is his first choice is Philly, and Philly might have more to offer Anaheim in return for him.

Regardless, let’s take a look at and see what the numbers say about Ryan.

BOBBY RYAN
Age:25
Ht: 6’2” Wt: 209
Position: RW
Shoots: Right
Cap Hit: $5,100,000 / Expires: 2015

Stats

First and foremost, Ryan is a goal-scorer, though he certainly produces points at a solid clip as well.  Starting with the 08-09 season, Ryan ranks 31st, 75th, 14th, and 74th in P/60 among forwards playing at least 60 games.  Good, but not great.  More impressive is his nose for the net.  Again starting with the 08-09 season, Ryan ranks 10th, 21st, 20th, and 14th in G/60 among forwards playing at least 60 games.  In other words, Ryan is consistently among the top twenty goal scorers in the league, year in and year out.

If there’s one thing the Wings certainly lack right now, it’s a pure goal scorer, and Ryan is certainly one of them.  And he only seems to be getting better; despite his “puck luck” fading, he’s scoring at an even higher rate.

Unsurprisingly, he’s also a plus possession guy, consistently posting a high positive relcorisi against tough competition with somewhat sheltered zone starts (though about average for Anaheim).  Given the way Babcock deploys his best forwards, I imagine he would be deployed in about the same situations with the Wings as he has been in Anaheim (i.e. 50%+ OffZone%, 0.500+ CorsiRelQoC).

Bottom Line–Guy is good, real good, and he’s only 25.  I don’t know why Bob Murray tried to ship him; he’s one of the few good things the Ducks have going for them.

What will it cost to get him?   

I don’t know, and it doesn’t seem there’s been any serious offers thrown Anaheim’s way just yet.  Things will heat up once Parise is signed, for sure.  If what Howson wants for Nash is the starting point, then it’s a lot, and I don’t think the Wings have the assets for a big trade outside of Smith and Nyquist.  Unlike Nash, however, I’d consider–consider–shipping both for Ryan.

I’m not one to sell the farm, though.

Free Agent Frenzy Update: Wings Sign Tootoo and Samuelsson

The Wings made a couple more signings to end day one of free agency, inking Mikael Samuelsson to a 2-year, $6 million deal (with a no-trade clause) and Jordin Fucking Tootoo to a 3-year, $5.7 million deal.

When last we saw Sammuelson in a winged wheel, he was best known for missing the net a lot and chest-sniping goalies.  On the other hand, he’s a consistently plus possession guy who can play tough minutes, though I wouldn’t expect him to put up anything more than decent-at-best point totals.  (As a bonus, he’s a right handed shot, so there’s that I guess.)  Basically he’ll replace Hudler, and honestly he may be an upgrade.  That he “may” be an upgrade rather than “most definitely is” tells you I’m not altogether thrilled with the signing, though at $3 million for two years it’s a low risk gamble—even with a NTC.

Tootoo, however—fuck him.  He’s a decent-at-best third or fourth line guy who will take a lot of dumb penalties and piss a lot of people off, adding that elusive “grit” factor bottom-feeding fans eat up.  This signing follows with the Wings new drafting philosophy that led them to squander their final three picks in the 2012 draft on guys whose main assets were size, toughness, and grit—because that whole “skill and finesse” thing that’s made the Wings the NHL’s model franchise sure isn’t working.

Okay, now breathe.  Let’s break down the numbers and see what we’ve got. This time around I put a glossary at the bottom for the statistically challenged.

——————————————————————————

JORDIN TOOTOO
Age: 29
Ht: 5’9” Wt: 200 lbs.
Position: RW
Shoots: Right

The Basics–6 G/24 A/30 pts./77 GP

This past season Tootoo had a career high 30 points, which is pretty good considering he did this with Nashville’s bottom six forwards.  However, I wouldn’t place too much of an emphasis on point totals considering he is a third or fourth liner whose main job should be keeping the puck out his own net and maybe drawing a penalty or two here and there.  So let’s see what the numbers say about that.

The Guts

	GP	TOI/60	CorsiRelQoC	RelCorsi	OffZone%	PD/60	PT/60
2011-2012	77	12.83	-0.711	-5.2	47.3	1.0	1.2
2010-2011	54	11.66	0.306	-1.6	49.3	1.9	1.0
2009-2010	51	10.70	-0.606	2.4	49.8	2.0	0.5

Aside from ’09-’10, Tootoo has been a minus possession player who plays soft minutes.  Though his offensive zone starts are below 50%, this is actually above average for a player with the Preds (if only a little).  Considering how the Wings deploy their bottom six, he will again be fed similar soft minutes though I’d imagine with a considerably higher offensive zone start percentage.

To honest–he’s got some chops, and maybe he can at least maintain or–god forbid–improve on his point totals from last year.  Remember, this is a bottom six with Emmerton and Abdelkader, so he may even be an upgrade.  (Also–as many have noted–keep in mind that the Wings have too many forwards on the roster right now, so expect more moves from Holland.)

And though he is known to take his fair share of dumb penalties–especially in the playoffs–he actually draws more penalties than he takes.  Regardless, were he to play with the Wings this season he would have led the team with 92 penalty minutes.  These numbers need a bit of context, too; if you subtract penalties taken from penalties drawn, the Wings bottom six all have better penalty differentials than Tootoo while taking fewer penalties total as well.  (As an aside, Darren Helm is exceptional at drawing penalties while taking very few.)

This is sort of beside the point, though; the Wings signed a minus possession guy that takes dumb penalties and has a god damn train whistle go off every time he steps onto the ice for the next three years, ignoring cheaper, better alternatives (e.g. David Moss, Ryan Shannon).  Oh, and he doesn’t kill penalties either (maybe because he’s the one in the box all the time)–at least that’s not how Nashville used him, as he ranked 8th among Nashville forwards playing at least 50 games in 4v5 TOI/60.

Bottom Line–It’s a bad signing no matter which way you slice it.  He also spells his first name funny.

————————————

MIKAEL SAMUELSSON
Age: 35
Ht: 6’1” Wt: 218 lbs.
Position: RW
Shoots: Right

The Basics–14 G/17 A/31 pts./54 GP

Injury concerns plagued Sammuelson this past season, limiting him to 54 games between the Canucks and Panthers.  Regardless, he played a solid role with the Panthers and registered a respectable 31 points.  Though I don’t anticipate him to put up the totals he did in ’09-’10 with the Canucks, it’s reasonable to expect him to hit the 50 point range.  Like I said before, he’s replacing Hudler, so in order to better assess the signing we need to compare Hudler and Samuelson side by side.

The Guts

Mikael Samuelson
	GP	TOI/60	P/60	CorsiRelQoC	RelCorsi	OffZone%	PDO
2011-2012	54	13.07	1.53	0.914	5.4	48.7	1003
2010-2011	75	13.78	1.80	0.156	8.6	50.9	1007
2009-2010	74	13.58	2.15	0.486	14.7	52.3	1007

Jiri Hudler
	GP	TOI/60	P/60	CorsiRelQoC	RelCorsi	OffZone%	PDO
2011-2012	82	13.33	2.22	0.789	0.8	55.8	1021
2010-2011	73	11.38	1.73	0.262	0.0	57.3	980
2008-2009	81	10.60	2.00	0.389	3.6	63.6	988

Let’s start with the obvious–Samuelson is obviously a better possession player than Hudler, consistently registering a higher positive relcorsi than him despite relatively tougher minutes.  Both get high offensive zone starts–above average for their respective teams–though this past season–which was split between Florida and Vancouver–Samuelsson was saddled with very tough competition and below average offensive zone starts.  His relcorsi has plummeted in recent years, but it’s still solid and still better than anything Hudler has managed to create.  Both certainly have chops, but I think the former’s edge in size allows him to control the play better, explaining the better possession numbers.

In terms of point production, I think Hudler has a slight edge.  First, Hudler–this year he overachieved, hence the high PDO, had a bad season prior to that, and waaaaay back in ’08-’09 did solid thanks to very high offensive zone starts.  Samuelsson, on the other hand, is clearly on the decline, and his decline in points seems directly correlated with a decline in his ability to get shots on net.

If you want my honest eyeball assessment, I think Hudler is the better playmaker and has a better shot and will produce more than Samuelsson even after he–invariably–regresses.  But Samuelsson is the better two-way forward, posting consistently better possession numbers.

Bottom Line–It’s a wash.  While Hudler may prove to be the better point producer this year, Samuelsson is still the better choice defensively.  At $3 million for two years, I can live with it.

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Though today wasn’t that great of one for Wings fans, tomorrow may (or may not, depending on the way you look at it) be a good one.  It looks as though Suter and Parise may announce their decision.

If they sign one of the two, I pray it’s Suter.  And maybe with some luck they can sign Semin to a sane deal.

Glossary:
Corsi – (Shots For + Missed Shots For + Blocked Shots Against ) – (Shots Against + Missed Shots Against + Blocked Shots For)
CorsiRelQoC – Quality of Competition
GP – Games played
OffZone% – Offensive zone starts, or how often a player started their shift in the offensive zone
P/60 – Points per 60 minutes
PD/60 – Penalties drawn per 60 minutes
PT/60 – Penalties taken per 60 minutes
PDO – “Puck luck”, or shooting% + save%
RelCorsi – Corsi relative to team, or Relative Corsi Number minus Corsi Number of Team when player not on ice (see corsi)
TOI/60 – Time on ice per 60 minutes

Free Agent Frenzy Update: Wings Sign Brunner and Gustavsson, Wait on Suter and Parise

As expected, Suter and Parise haven’t led on much as to where they’ll sign.  Hopefully the drama doesn’t drag out more than a few days, but considering the number of suitors both players have, you never know.  McKenzie seems to think both decisions may come tomorrow.  As an aside, there was brief talk of Detroit pitching an offer to Columbus for Nash, though their offer is—thankfully—not that competitive of one and unlikely to woo Howson.

In the meantime, the Wings have made a couple moves so far, signing Toronto backup goaltender Jonas Gustavsson 2-year, $3 million deal and Damien Brunner from the Swiss Elite League two a 1-year, two-way deal.  The terms of Brunner’s contract were not disclosed, however I can’t imagine it’s for much given that it’s a two-way deal.

Jonas Gustavsson is a 27 year-old bed-wetter, posting a 17-17 record with a .902 SV% and a 2.92 GAA.  Gustavsson’s two seasons prior were equally unimpressive, good for a career .900 SV% and a 2.98 GAA. The hope is that Gustavsson excels with a team that doesn’t suck; he signed by the Leafs as an undrafted free agent after a career year in the Swedish Elite League (.932 SV%, 1.96 GAA), so there was certainly promise, though his three seasons with the Leafs leave little to hope for these days.

It’s a minor signing and carries little risk.  I don’t like that it’s a two-year deal, but that’s still a very short deal and peanuts in terms of salary.  Considering Clemmensen and Biron–the two best free goalie free agents (haha)–resigned with their respective teams, the Wings didn’t have many other options.  I think Dan Ellis would have been the smarter gamble, but I’m not going to raise much of a ruckus over who the backup goaltender is.

Who knows?  Maybe the Leafs really were that bad, but as Artic Ice Hockey was quick to point out before Pavelec eventually resigned with Winnipeg, defenseman don’t have much of an impact on a goaltender’s SV%.  While I don’t buy into this theory entirely, it is reasonable to assume the Leafs are not so bad as to drag a goaltender’s SV% from decent to abysmal.  Then again, this is the Leafs we’re talking about here.

Brunner is no risk, and—according to Babcock—is a top-six forward out the gate.  Babcock says a lot of shit though, so I wouldn’t put too much stock into his comments.  Anyways, Brunner has been tearing up the Swiss Elite League at more than a point-per-game pace the past three seasons, most recently notching 24 goals and 60 points in 45 games.  He could be a solid player, or he could be Fabian Brunnstrom.

Considering the Wings landed him so early and with such ease, other teams are obviously not tripping over themselves to give this guy a shot.  But a one-year, two-way deal means zero risk on the Wings part.  If he does pan out, it could make up for Hudler’s departure, which seems increasingly likely at this point.  (I expect the Wings to make a push for Semin or veteran guy like Doan to help fill that void, though.  Nyquist may prove ready to step into a top-six role as well, so I’m not overly concerned.)

Overall it has been pretty underwhelming thus far, but there is still a lot of good guys still on the market, not including Suter and Parise.  Speaking of which, as I’m typing this Nick Kypreos is saying Suter is leaning toward Detroit, and the market for both he and Parise is $90 million for 12-13 years (avg. $7.5 million annually).   That’s pretty crazy, but Kypreos tends to blow smoke up people’s asses a lof times.

We’ll see…

In Which I Attempt To Cover My Ass, or How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love Suter and Parise

I am not, like, totally opposed to signing Parise and/or Suter.  Yeah, I think the kinds of deals being doled out to every half-bit star in the league are stupid; they jeopardize the long-term health of the franchise for short-term gain, and something just isn’t right about Christian Ehrhoff getting a 10 year deal.  The players, of course, are not in any way to blame; it’s the fault of GMs who are either pressured into or too impatient to concern themselves with problems other than the most immediate ones.

But as I’ve stated before, albeit briefly, Parise and Suter would make an immediate impact on the Wings roster, perhaps making them strong cup contenders again.

Suter piques my interest more than Parise, however, and not just because of Lidstrom’s departure but also because—and this is based ENTIRELY on intuition—defensemen do tend to produce at high levels well into their 30s.  Obviously—as Wings fans—we have a little bit of experience with regards to that.  Just a little, though.

I will admit to writing this in an attempt to cover my ass, just in case I turn out to be horribly wrong about everything.  And who knows, maybe the Wings are able to sign the two of them for a reasonable length of time, though I’m not holding my breath, especially after the draft.

With the Pens shipping Zbynek Michalek to the Yotes and Jordan Staal to the Canes, they are potential suitors now as well, and Shero has said as much.  For those who are lusting over Suter and Parise, you can rest easy knowing they likely don’t have the cap space necessary to sign both of them, particularly if the rumor is true that they’re a package deal.

The point is they will have more than their fair share of suitors, giving them all the leverage in the world to ask for the moon.   Yet if there are any free agents from recent years worth a 10+ year deal, Parise and Suter are at the top of the list—certainly more than Richards and Ehrhoff, and possibly more than Kovalchuk.

So if come July 1^st the Wings do land Suter and Parise, I’m not going to be upset.  I’m sure given how reactionary I am I will be pretty excited about the coming season.

Ultimately, however, I will always be a skeptic.

Rick Nash may not be worth trading for, but he’s still a very good player.

Okay, let’s pretend Nash isn’t signed through 2018 at $7.8 million annually.  Let’s also pretend his salary doesn’t increase as the years go on, decreasing the possibility of a buyout down the road.  (Scott Howson, the GM of the Columbus Blue Jackets, should be fired on principle for this one.  Every GM is having their stars ink long term deals in order to soften their cap hit and allow for the possibility of a future buyout, and he does the exact opposite—signing Nash to a long term deal with a vomit inducing cap hit that’s unlikely to be bought out anytime soon.)  Finally, let’s pretend Howson is not asking for two good roster players, two prospects, and a couple of high draft picks in return for Nash and his anchor of a contract.

Instead, let’s evaluate Nash as if he were a free agent—is he the elite player some see him as, or is he not?

In 9 NHL seasons, Nash has scored fewer than 30 goals only twice, and hasn’t done so since ’06-’07—in which he scored 27 goals—despite playing on a traditionally bad team with bad teammates.  His assist totals match those of your typical sharpshooting winger, i.e., they nearly match his goal totals year in and year out, depressing his point totals.  Of course, this is blamed on playing for the Columbus Blue Jackets, and there is some validity to that.

	O-Zone Start%	RelCorsi QoC	Corsi QoT	RelCorsi QoT	RelCorsi
2011-2012	52.9	1.132	-2.762	0.977	-0.1
2010-2011	57.1	-0.033	3.653	2.703	4.5
2009-2010	49.8	1.020	-4.980	-0.992	2.9
2008-2009	51.3	0.436	3.771	-0.310	5.9
2007-2008	52.4	0.296	3.975	-0.028	5.6

I included the raw corsi for QoT because we are talking about raw point totals.  Nash could have good teammates relative to the Columbus Blue Jackets, but those “good teammates” could be shitty players on a good team.  Aside from the past couple seasons, Nash has not only played on a bad team but he has traditionally been paired with bad teammates.  And though he was paired with better teammates this season, they registered and abysmal -2.762 corsi, good for 187^th among forwards playing at least 60 games.  From the ’07-’08 season through’10-’11, Nash’s QoT would be ranked 76^th, 80^th, 253^rd, and 78^th, respectively.

In other words, Nash has played on a bad team with bad teammates, yet has still managed to pot 30 goals a season on a consistent basis (and be a plus possession player) against increasingly tougher competition.  This year his relcorsi dipped into negative territory as he faced the toughest competition of his career despite favorable zone starts, though the drama that unfolded around him and the team he played on just may have had an impact on his play.

Though perhaps not be as elite as some claim him to be, it would be very interesting to see Nash on a team that doesn’t blow goats.

If only we could ignore the first paragraph…